James Llontop vs Rafael Alves
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
14-5-0Record21-12-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
6'0"Height5'7"
73″Reach68"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1631
If they lose-16→ 1599
If they win+16→ 1629
If they lose-16→ 1597
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1552 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1615 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
James LlontopRafael Alves
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
James Llontop70%
Rafael Alves 30%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes James Llontop a 70% favorite over Rafael Alves in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1615 vs 1613), separated by just 2 points.
James Llontop enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Rafael Alves enters on a 2-fight win streak.
James Llontop finishes 57% of wins inside the distance, Rafael Alves 76%.
James Llontop carries a 5-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.