Combat Edge Intelligence

James Moontasri vs Joe Ellenberger

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

9-5-0Record15-2-0
WelterweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height5'8"
71,0"Reach72,0"
170 lbsWeight155 lbs
Black HouseTeamPremier Combat Center

What's at stake

Joe Ellenberger is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +13 while a loss costs more — James Moontasri carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

James MoontasriNow 1616
If they win+19→ 1635
If they lose-13→ 1603
Joe EllenbergerNow 1685
If they win+13→ 1698
If they lose-19→ 1666

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1597 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1545 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.39
Sig. strikes / min
1.62
49%
Strike accuracy
47%
3.86
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.45
41%
Strike defense
48%
0
Takedown avg.
3.17
0%
Takedown accuracy
40%
79%
Takedown defense
0%
0.25
Submission avg.
1.06

Trajectory

James MoontasriJoe Ellenberger
1600165017002013201420152016

Win method breakdown

4 (44%)
KO/TKO
8 (53%)
3 (33%)
Submission
4 (27%)
2 (22%)
Decision
3 (20%)

Combat Edge model read

Joe Ellenberger61%
James Moontasri 39%Elo baseline: 60%

The Combat Edge model makes Joe Ellenberger a 61% favorite over James Moontasri in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (60%).

Joe Ellenberger holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1685 to 1616, a 69-point edge.

James Moontasri enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

James Moontasri finishes 78% of wins inside the distance, Joe Ellenberger 80%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.