Combat Edge Intelligence

James Mulheron vs Justin Willis

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

11-4-0Record8-2-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
5'10"Height6'1"
41,0"Reach41,0"
243 lbsWeight265 lbs
TBDTeamAmerican Kickboxing Academy

What's at stake

Justin Willis is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +13 while a loss costs more — James Mulheron carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

James MulheronNow 1592
If they win+19→ 1611
If they lose-13→ 1579
Justin WillisNow 1657
If they win+13→ 1670
If they lose-19→ 1638

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1514 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1573 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.40
Sig. strikes / min
3.37
32%
Strike accuracy
59%
3.47
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.57
43%
Strike defense
58%
0
Takedown avg.
0.96
TBD
Takedown accuracy
67%
25%
Takedown defense
36%
0
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

James MulheronJustin Willis
160016501700201720182019

Win method breakdown

6 (55%)
KO/TKO
4 (50%)
0 (0%)
Submission
0 (0%)
5 (45%)
Decision
4 (50%)

Combat Edge model read

Justin Willis70%
James Mulheron 30%Elo baseline: 59%

The Combat Edge model makes Justin Willis a 70% favorite over James Mulheron in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (59%).

Justin Willis holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1657 to 1592, a 65-point edge.

James Mulheron enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

James Mulheron finishes 55% of wins inside the distance, Justin Willis 50%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.