Combat Edge Intelligence

James Thompson vs Nicolaj Wagner

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

Compare any two fighters →

Tale of the tape

20-17-0Record5-4-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'5"Height6'2"
TBDReach-
260 lbsWeight249 lbs
London ShootfightersTeam

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

James ThompsonNow 1521
If they win+12→ 1533
If they lose-12→ 1509
Nicolaj WagnerNow 1532
If they win+23→ 1555
If they lose-25→ 1507

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1547 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1498 · 9 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
TBD
Strike accuracy
TBD
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
TBD
Strike defense
TBD
TBD
Takedown avg.
TBD
TBD
Takedown accuracy
TBD
TBD
Takedown defense
TBD
TBD
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

James ThompsonNicolaj Wagner
1500155020162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

13 (65%)
KO/TKO
5 (100%)
5 (25%)
Submission
0 (0%)
2 (10%)
Decision
0 (0%)

Combat Edge model read

Nicolaj Wagner70%
James Thompson 30%Elo baseline: 52%

The Combat Edge model makes Nicolaj Wagner a 70% favorite over James Thompson in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (52%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1521 vs 1532), separated by just 11 points.

James Thompson enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

James Thompson finishes 90% of wins inside the distance, Nicolaj Wagner 100%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.