Combat Edge Intelligence

James Wilks vs Peter Sobotta

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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James Wilks

James Wilks

“Lightning”

7-4-0WelterweightUFC

1521Average

Tale of the tape

7-4-0Record17-7-1
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'1"Height6'0"
TBDReachTBD
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Lightning MMATeamPlanet Eater

What's at stake

Peter Sobotta is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +8 while a loss costs more — James Wilks carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

James WilksNow 1521
If they win+22→ 1543
If they lose-10→ 1511
Peter SobottaNow 1652
If they win+8→ 1660
If they lose-16→ 1636

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1533 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1613 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.82
Sig. strikes / min
2.14
45%
Strike accuracy
40%
2.03
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.90
50%
Strike defense
59%
1.27
Takedown avg.
1.53
22%
Takedown accuracy
32%
67%
Takedown defense
78%
3.80
Submission avg.
0.51

Trajectory

James WilksPeter Sobotta
1500155016001650200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020

Win method breakdown

2 (29%)
KO/TKO
5 (29%)
4 (57%)
Submission
10 (59%)
1 (14%)
Decision
2 (12%)

Combat Edge model read

Peter Sobotta75%
James Wilks 25%Elo baseline: 68%

The Combat Edge model makes Peter Sobotta a 75% favorite over James Wilks in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (68%).

Peter Sobotta holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1652 to 1521, a 131-point edge.

Peter Sobotta enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

James Wilks finishes 86% of wins inside the distance, Peter Sobotta 88%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.