Combat Edge Intelligence

Jamie Varner vs Jason Gilliam

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

21-11-1Record15-9-0
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
5'8"Height6'0"
TBDReachTBD
155 lbsWeight169 lbs
Arizona Combat SportsTeamTeam Wolfpack

What's at stake

Jamie Varner is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Jason Gilliam carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Jamie VarnerNow 1603
If they win+9→ 1612
If they lose-15→ 1588
Jason GilliamNow 1529
If they win+19→ 1548
If they lose-13→ 1516

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1616 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1542 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.92
Sig. strikes / min
0.79
35%
Strike accuracy
33%
2.55
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.14
59%
Strike defense
43%
3.49
Takedown avg.
0
54%
Takedown accuracy
TBD
67%
Takedown defense
0%
0.83
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Jamie VarnerJason Gilliam
150015501600165020132014201520162017

Win method breakdown

9 (43%)
KO/TKO
10 (67%)
9 (43%)
Submission
5 (33%)
3 (14%)
Decision
0 (0%)

Combat Edge model read

Jamie Varner76%
Jason Gilliam 24%Elo baseline: 60%

The Combat Edge model makes Jamie Varner a 76% favorite over Jason Gilliam in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (60%).

Jamie Varner holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1603 to 1529, a 74-point edge.

Jamie Varner enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Jamie Varner finishes 86% of wins inside the distance, Jason Gilliam 100%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.