Jamie Varner vs Joe Lauzon
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
21-11-1Record28-15-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'8"Height5'10"
TBDReachTBD
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Arizona Combat SportsTeamLauzon MMA
What's at stake
Joe Lauzon is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Jamie Varner carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+14→ 1617
If they lose-10→ 1593
If they win+10→ 1659
If they lose-14→ 1635
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1616 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1669 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Jamie VarnerJoe Lauzon
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Joe Lauzon54%
Jamie Varner 46%Elo baseline: 57%
The Combat Edge model makes Joe Lauzon a 54% favorite over Jamie Varner in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (57%).
Joe Lauzon holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1649 to 1603, a 46-point edge.
Jamie Varner enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Jamie Varner finishes 86% of wins inside the distance, Joe Lauzon 93%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.