Jamie Varner vs Melvin Guillard
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
21-11-1Record32-22-2
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
5'8"Height5'9"
TBDReachTBD
155 lbsWeight170 lbs
What's at stake
Jamie Varner is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Melvin Guillard carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+9→ 1611
If they lose-15→ 1587
If they win+15→ 1524
If they lose-9→ 1500
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1611 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1595 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Jamie VarnerMelvin Guillard
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Jamie Varner60%
Melvin Guillard 40%Elo baseline: 63%
The Combat Edge model makes Jamie Varner a 60% favorite over Melvin Guillard in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (63%).
Jamie Varner holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1602 to 1509, a 93-point edge.
Jamie Varner enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Melvin Guillard enters on a 10-fight loss streak.
Jamie Varner finishes 86% of wins inside the distance, Melvin Guillard 72%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.