Jamie Varner vs Tim Wilde
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
21-11-1Record17-7-1
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'8"Height5'11"
TBDReach75"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1615
If they lose-12→ 1591
If they win+16→ 1620
If they lose-16→ 1588
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1616 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1579 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Jamie VarnerTim Wilde
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Tim Wilde53%
Jamie Varner 47%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Tim Wilde a 53% favorite over Jamie Varner in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1603 vs 1604), separated by just 1 points.
Jamie Varner enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Jamie Varner finishes 86% of wins inside the distance, Tim Wilde 47%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.