Combat Edge Intelligence

Jan Błachowicz vs Luke Rockhold

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

Compare any two fighters →

Tale of the tape

29-12-2Record16-6-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'2"Height6'3"
78"Reach77"
205 lbsWeight185 lbs
WCA Fight Team· 1652 avg Elo · 3 ratedTeamAmerican Kickboxing Academy· 1641 avg Elo · 5 rated

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Jan BłachowiczNow 1733
If they win+12→ 1745
If they lose-12→ 1721
Luke RockholdNow 1742
If they win+16→ 1758
If they lose-16→ 1726

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1759 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1736 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.55
Sig. strikes / min
4.10
50%
Strike accuracy
50%
3.14
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.68
52%
Strike defense
54%
0.98
Takedown avg.
0.70
31%
Takedown accuracy
29%
69%
Takedown defense
65%
0.36
Submission avg.
1.01

Trajectory

Jan BłachowiczLuke Rockhold
17502023202420252026

Win method breakdown

9 (31%)
KO/TKO
6 (38%)
9 (31%)
Submission
8 (50%)
11 (38%)
Decision
2 (13%)

Combat Edge model read

Jan Błachowicz60%
Luke Rockhold 40%Elo baseline: 49%

The Combat Edge model makes Jan Błachowicz a 60% favorite over Luke Rockhold in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Luke Rockhold's way (49%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1733 vs 1742), separated by just 9 points.

Luke Rockhold enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Jan Błachowicz finishes 62% of wins inside the distance, Luke Rockhold 88%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.