Combat Edge Intelligence

Jan Błachowicz vs Luke Rockhold

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

Compare any two fighters →

Tale of the tape

29-11-0Record16-6-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'2"Height6'3"
78"Reach77"
205 lbsWeight185 lbs
WCA Fight TeamTeamAmerican Kickboxing Academy

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Jan BłachowiczNow 1748
If they win+12→ 1760
If they lose-12→ 1736
Luke RockholdNow 1742
If they win+16→ 1758
If they lose-16→ 1726

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1765 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1736 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.55
Sig. strikes / min
4.10
50%
Strike accuracy
50%
3.14
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.68
52%
Strike defense
54%
0.98
Takedown avg.
0.70
31%
Takedown accuracy
29%
69%
Takedown defense
65%
0.36
Submission avg.
1.01

Trajectory

Jan BłachowiczLuke Rockhold
1750202320242025

Win method breakdown

9 (31%)
KO/TKO
6 (38%)
9 (31%)
Submission
8 (50%)
11 (38%)
Decision
2 (13%)

Combat Edge model read

The Combat Edge model rates this a near coin-flip, splitting Jan Błachowicz and Luke Rockhold within a point of even.

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1748 vs 1742), separated by just 6 points.

Luke Rockhold enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Jan Błachowicz finishes 62% of wins inside the distance, Luke Rockhold 88%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.