Jan Błachowicz vs Navajo Stirling
Records, Elo, stats and the Combat Edge model read, side by side.
Combat Edge model read
Navajo Stirling61%
Jan Błachowicz 39%Elo baseline: 55%
The Combat Edge model makes Navajo Stirling a 61% favorite over Jan Błachowicz in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (55%).
Navajo Stirling holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1761 to 1729, a 32-point edge.
Navajo Stirling enters on a 10-fight win streak.
Jan Błachowicz finishes 62% of wins inside the distance, Navajo Stirling 64%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.
Tale of the tape
29-12-2Record11-0-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'2"Height6'4"
78"Reach79"
205 lbsWeight205 lbs
WCA Fight Team· 1601 avg Elo · 8 ratedTeamCity Kickboxing
What's at stake
Navajo Stirling is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Jan Błachowicz carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+13→ 1742
If they lose-11→ 1718
If they win+15→ 1776
If they lose-17→ 1744
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1760 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1597 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Jan BłachowiczNavajo Stirling