Combat Edge Intelligence

Jan Błachowicz vs Navajo Stirling

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

29-11-2Record10-0-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'2"Height6'4"
78"Reach79"
205 lbsWeight205 lbs
WCA Fight TeamTeamCity Kickboxing

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Jan BłachowiczNow 1748
If they win+12→ 1760
If they lose-12→ 1736
Navajo StirlingNow 1734
If they win+17→ 1751
If they lose-15→ 1719

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1765 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1560 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.55
Sig. strikes / min
6.24
50%
Strike accuracy
54%
3.14
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.62
52%
Strike defense
58%
0.98
Takedown avg.
0.86
31%
Takedown accuracy
0%
69%
Takedown defense
71%
0.36
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Jan BłachowiczNavajo Stirling
160017002023202420252026

Win method breakdown

9 (31%)
KO/TKO
6 (60%)
9 (31%)
Submission
0 (0%)
11 (38%)
Decision
4 (40%)

Combat Edge model read

Navajo Stirling61%
Jan Błachowicz 39%Elo baseline: 48%

The Combat Edge model makes Navajo Stirling a 61% favorite over Jan Błachowicz in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Jan Błachowicz's way (48%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1748 vs 1734), separated by just 14 points.

Navajo Stirling enters on a 10-fight win streak.

Jan Błachowicz finishes 62% of wins inside the distance, Navajo Stirling 60%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.