Jan Błachowicz vs Shamil Erdogan
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
29-12-2Record13-0-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'2"Height6'2"
78"Reach79"
205 lbsWeight205 lbs
WCA Fight Team· 1652 avg Elo · 3 ratedTeamKrepost Fight Club
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1745
If they lose-12→ 1721
If they win+16→ 1747
If they lose-16→ 1715
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1759 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1516 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Jan BłachowiczShamil Erdogan
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Shamil Erdogan60%
Jan Błachowicz 40%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Shamil Erdogan a 60% favorite over Jan Błachowicz in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Jan Błachowicz's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1733 vs 1731), separated by just 2 points.
Shamil Erdogan enters on a 10-fight win streak.
Jan Błachowicz finishes 62% of wins inside the distance, Shamil Erdogan 69%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.