Combat Edge Intelligence

Jan Błachowicz vs Makhmud Muradov

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

29-12-2Record30-8-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'2"Height6'2"
78"Reach75"
205 lbsWeight185 lbs
WCA Fight Team· 1652 avg Elo · 3 ratedTeamAnkos MMA· 1671 avg Elo · 4 rated

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Jan BłachowiczNow 1733
If they win+12→ 1745
If they lose-12→ 1721
Makhmud MuradovNow 1736
If they win+12→ 1748
If they lose-12→ 1724

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1759 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1650 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.55
Sig. strikes / min
4.21
50%
Strike accuracy
44%
3.14
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.57
52%
Strike defense
61%
0.98
Takedown avg.
3.03
31%
Takedown accuracy
0%
69%
Takedown defense
78%
0.36
Submission avg.
0.19

Trajectory

Jan BłachowiczMakhmud Muradov
1700175020252026

Win method breakdown

9 (31%)
KO/TKO
19 (63%)
9 (31%)
Submission
3 (10%)
11 (38%)
Decision
8 (27%)

Combat Edge model read

Makhmud Muradov61%
Jan Błachowicz 39%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Makhmud Muradov a 61% favorite over Jan Błachowicz in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1733 vs 1736), separated by just 3 points.

Makhmud Muradov enters on a 5-fight win streak.

Jan Błachowicz finishes 62% of wins inside the distance, Makhmud Muradov 73%.

Jan Błachowicz carries a 3-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.