Jan Błachowicz vs Patrick Cummins
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
29-11-0Record10-7-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'2"Height6'2"
78"ReachTBD
205 lbsWeight205 lbs
WCA Fight TeamTeamReign MMA
What's at stake
Jan Błachowicz is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +7 while a loss costs more — Patrick Cummins carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+7→ 1755
If they lose-17→ 1731
If they win+22→ 1624
If they lose-10→ 1592
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1765 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1667 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Jan BłachowiczPatrick Cummins
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Jan Błachowicz79%
Patrick Cummins 21%Elo baseline: 70%
The Combat Edge model makes Jan Błachowicz a 79% favorite over Patrick Cummins in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (70%).
Jan Błachowicz holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1748 to 1602, a 146-point edge.
Patrick Cummins enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Jan Błachowicz finishes 62% of wins inside the distance, Patrick Cummins 60%.
Jan Błachowicz and Patrick Cummins share 2 common opponents: Glover Teixeira and Corey Anderson.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.