Combat Edge Intelligence

Jan Błachowicz vs Ronaldo Souza

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

29-11-0Record26-10-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'2"Height6'1"
78"Reach72"
205 lbsWeight185 lbs
WCA Fight TeamTeamFusion X-Cel Performance

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Jan BłachowiczNow 1748
If they win+12→ 1760
If they lose-12→ 1736
Ronaldo SouzaNow 1749
If they win+12→ 1761
If they lose-12→ 1737

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1765 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1726 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.55
Sig. strikes / min
2.53
50%
Strike accuracy
47%
3.14
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.83
52%
Strike defense
62%
0.98
Takedown avg.
2.57
31%
Takedown accuracy
39%
69%
Takedown defense
58%
0.36
Submission avg.
1.34

Trajectory

Jan BłachowiczRonaldo Souza
175018002019202020212022202320242025

Win method breakdown

9 (31%)
KO/TKO
8 (31%)
9 (31%)
Submission
14 (54%)
11 (38%)
Decision
4 (15%)

Combat Edge model read

Jan Błachowicz63%
Ronaldo Souza 37%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Jan Błachowicz a 63% favorite over Ronaldo Souza in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Ronaldo Souza's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1748 vs 1749), separated by just 1 points.

Ronaldo Souza enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Jan Błachowicz finishes 62% of wins inside the distance, Ronaldo Souza 85%.

Jan Błachowicz carries a 6-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.