Combat Edge Intelligence

Jan Błachowicz vs Ronaldo Souza

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

Compare any two fighters →

Tale of the tape

29-12-2Record26-10-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'2"Height6'1"
78"Reach72"
205 lbsWeight185 lbs
WCA Fight Team· 1652 avg Elo · 3 ratedTeamFusion X-Cel Performance· 1620 avg Elo · 3 rated

What's at stake

Ronaldo Souza is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Jan Błachowicz carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Jan BłachowiczNow 1733
If they win+13→ 1746
If they lose-11→ 1722
Ronaldo SouzaNow 1749
If they win+11→ 1760
If they lose-13→ 1736

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1759 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1726 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.55
Sig. strikes / min
2.53
50%
Strike accuracy
47%
3.14
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.83
52%
Strike defense
62%
0.98
Takedown avg.
2.57
31%
Takedown accuracy
39%
69%
Takedown defense
58%
0.36
Submission avg.
1.34

Trajectory

Jan BłachowiczRonaldo Souza
1750180020192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

9 (31%)
KO/TKO
8 (31%)
9 (31%)
Submission
14 (54%)
11 (38%)
Decision
4 (15%)

Combat Edge model read

Jan Błachowicz70%
Ronaldo Souza 30%Elo baseline: 48%

The Combat Edge model makes Jan Błachowicz a 70% favorite over Ronaldo Souza in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Ronaldo Souza's way (48%).

Ronaldo Souza holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1749 to 1733, a 16-point edge.

Ronaldo Souza enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Jan Błachowicz finishes 62% of wins inside the distance, Ronaldo Souza 85%.

Jan Błachowicz carries a 6-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.