Jan Błachowicz vs Thiago Santos
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
29-11-0Record22-13-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'2"Height6'2"
78"Reach 76"
205 lbsWeight241 lbs
WCA Fight TeamTeamTeam Marreta
What's at stake
Jan Błachowicz is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Thiago Santos carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+10→ 1758
If they lose-14→ 1734
If they win+14→ 1708
If they lose-10→ 1684
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1765 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1743 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Jan BłachowiczThiago Santos
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Jan Błachowicz67%
Thiago Santos 33%Elo baseline: 58%
The Combat Edge model makes Jan Błachowicz a 67% favorite over Thiago Santos in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (58%).
Jan Błachowicz holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1748 to 1694, a 54-point edge.
Thiago Santos enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Jan Błachowicz finishes 62% of wins inside the distance, Thiago Santos 73%.
Jan Błachowicz and Thiago Santos share 3 common opponents: Magomed Ankalaev, Aleksandar Rakić and Glover Teixeira.
Jan Błachowicz carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.