Jan Błachowicz vs Thiago Santos
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
29-12-2Record22-13-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'2"Height6'2"
78"Reach 76"
205 lbsWeight241 lbs
WCA Fight Team· 1652 avg Elo · 3 ratedTeamTeam Marreta
What's at stake
Jan Błachowicz is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Thiago Santos carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+10→ 1743
If they lose-14→ 1719
If they win+14→ 1688
If they lose-10→ 1664
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1759 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1726 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Jan BłachowiczThiago Santos
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Jan Błachowicz76%
Thiago Santos 24%Elo baseline: 58%
The Combat Edge model makes Jan Błachowicz a 76% favorite over Thiago Santos in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (58%).
Jan Błachowicz holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1733 to 1674, a 59-point edge.
Thiago Santos enters on a 5-fight loss streak.
Jan Błachowicz finishes 62% of wins inside the distance, Thiago Santos 73%.
Jan Błachowicz and Thiago Santos share 3 common opponents: Magomed Ankalaev, Aleksandar Rakić and Glover Teixeira.
Jan Błachowicz carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.