Jared Gordon vs Leonardo Santos
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
21-9-0Record18-6-1
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height6'0"
68"Reach75"
156 lbsWeight155 lbs
Kill Cliff FCTeamNova Uniao
What's at stake
Jared Gordon is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Leonardo Santos carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+11→ 1686
If they lose-13→ 1662
If they win+17→ 1673
If they lose-15→ 1641
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1702 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1658 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Jared GordonLeonardo Santos
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Jared Gordon66%
Leonardo Santos 34%Elo baseline: 53%
The Combat Edge model makes Jared Gordon a 66% favorite over Leonardo Santos in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (53%).
Jared Gordon holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1675 to 1656, a 19-point edge.
Jared Gordon enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Leonardo Santos enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Jared Gordon finishes 48% of wins inside the distance, Leonardo Santos 71%.
Jared Gordon and Leonardo Santos share 1 common opponent: Grant Dawson.
Leonardo Santos carries a 7-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.