Jared Gordon vs Logan Paxton
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
21-9-0Record10-2-0
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
5'9"Height5'10"
68"Reach70"
156 lbsWeight170 lbs
Kill Cliff FCTeamNick Diaz Academy· 1669 avg Elo · 3 rated
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1690
If they lose-12→ 1666
If they win+16→ 1694
If they lose-16→ 1662
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1705 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1541 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Jared GordonLogan Paxton
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Logan Paxton77%
Jared Gordon 23%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Logan Paxton a 77% favorite over Jared Gordon in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Jared Gordon's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1678 vs 1678), separated by just 0 points.
Jared Gordon enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Jared Gordon finishes 48% of wins inside the distance, Logan Paxton 90%.
Logan Paxton carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.