Jared Gordon vs Mark Madsen
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
21-9-0Record12-2-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height5'10"
68"Reach72"
156 lbsWeight155 lbs
Kill Cliff FCTeamRumble Sports
What's at stake
Mark Madsen is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Jared Gordon carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+13→ 1691
If they lose-11→ 1667
If they win+15→ 1711
If they lose-17→ 1679
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1704 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1596 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Jared GordonMark Madsen
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Jared Gordon60%
Mark Madsen 40%Elo baseline: 47%
The Combat Edge model makes Jared Gordon a 60% favorite over Mark Madsen in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Mark Madsen's way (47%).
Mark Madsen holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1696 to 1678, a 18-point edge.
Jared Gordon enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Mark Madsen enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Jared Gordon finishes 48% of wins inside the distance, Mark Madsen 50%.
Jared Gordon and Mark Madsen share 1 common opponent: Grant Dawson.
Mark Madsen carries a 4-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.