Jared Rosholt vs Roy Nelson
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
Compare any two fighters →
Tale of the tape
20-8-0Record24-20-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'2"Height6'0"
41,0"Reach72,0"
240 lbsWeight249 lbs
Team TakedownTeamCountry Club
What's at stake
Jared Rosholt is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Roy Nelson carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+11→ 1672
If they lose-13→ 1648
If they win+13→ 1645
If they lose-11→ 1621
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1572 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1687 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Jared RosholtRoy Nelson
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Roy Nelson55%
Jared Rosholt 45%Elo baseline: 46%
The Combat Edge model makes Roy Nelson a 55% favorite over Jared Rosholt in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Jared Rosholt's way (46%).
Jared Rosholt holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1661 to 1632, a 29-point edge.
Roy Nelson enters on a 5-fight loss streak.
Jared Rosholt finishes 40% of wins inside the distance, Roy Nelson 83%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.