Combat Edge Intelligence

Jared Rosholt vs Soa Palelei

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Soa Palelei
au

Soa Palelei

“The Hulk”

22-5-0HeavyweightUFC

1736Good

Tale of the tape

20-8-0Record22-5-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'2"Height6'4"
41,0"ReachTBD
240 lbsWeight265 lbs
Team TakedownTeamAKA Thailand

What's at stake

Soa Palelei is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Jared Rosholt carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Jared RosholtNow 1663
If they win+14→ 1677
If they lose-10→ 1653
Soa PaleleiNow 1736
If they win+10→ 1746
If they lose-14→ 1722

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1569 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1584 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.08
Sig. strikes / min
2.47
46%
Strike accuracy
58%
1.52
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.68
60%
Strike defense
48%
1.83
Takedown avg.
2.20
42%
Takedown accuracy
48%
67%
Takedown defense
67%
0.14
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Jared RosholtSoa Palelei
1650170017502013201420152016201720182019

Win method breakdown

7 (35%)
KO/TKO
19 (86%)
1 (5%)
Submission
3 (14%)
12 (60%)
Decision
0 (0%)

Combat Edge model read

Soa Palelei57%
Jared Rosholt 43%Elo baseline: 60%

The Combat Edge model makes Soa Palelei a 57% favorite over Jared Rosholt in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (60%).

Soa Palelei holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1736 to 1663, a 73-point edge.

Jared Rosholt finishes 40% of wins inside the distance, Soa Palelei 100%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.