Combat Edge Intelligence

Jared Rosholt vs Timothy Johnson

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

20-8-0Record18-10-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'2"Height6'3"
41,0"Reach77.50
240 lbsWeight266 lbs
Team TakedownTeamXtreme Couture

What's at stake

Jared Rosholt is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Timothy Johnson carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Jared RosholtNow 1663
If they win+9→ 1672
If they lose-15→ 1648
Timothy JohnsonNow 1586
If they win+29→ 1615
If they lose-19→ 1567

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1569 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1675 · 7 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.08
Sig. strikes / min
3.43
46%
Strike accuracy
45%
1.52
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.08
60%
Strike defense
44%
1.83
Takedown avg.
1.09
42%
Takedown accuracy
24%
67%
Takedown defense
69%
0.14
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Jared RosholtTimothy Johnson
15501600165017002016201720182019

Win method breakdown

7 (35%)
KO/TKO
10 (56%)
1 (5%)
Submission
3 (17%)
12 (60%)
Decision
5 (28%)

Combat Edge model read

Jared Rosholt67%
Timothy Johnson 33%Elo baseline: 61%

The Combat Edge model makes Jared Rosholt a 67% favorite over Timothy Johnson in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (61%).

Jared Rosholt holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1663 to 1586, a 77-point edge.

Jared Rosholt finishes 40% of wins inside the distance, Timothy Johnson 72%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.