Jared Vanderaa vs Justin Tafa
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
17-11-0Record7-5-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'4"Height6'0"
80"Reach74"
259 lbsWeight265 lbs
Team QuestTeamNTG Fight & Fitness
What's at stake
Justin Tafa is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Jared Vanderaa carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+13→ 1598
If they lose-11→ 1574
If they win+15→ 1623
If they lose-17→ 1591
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1596 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1605 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Jared VanderaaJustin Tafa
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Justin Tafa66%
Jared Vanderaa 34%Elo baseline: 53%
The Combat Edge model makes Justin Tafa a 66% favorite over Jared Vanderaa in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (53%).
Justin Tafa holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1608 to 1585, a 23-point edge.
Jared Vanderaa enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Justin Tafa enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Jared Vanderaa finishes 82% of wins inside the distance, Justin Tafa 100%.
Jared Vanderaa carries a 6-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.