Jared Vanderaa vs Serghei Spivac
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
17-11-0Record18-6-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'4"Height6'3"
80"Reach 78"
259 lbsWeight256 lbs
Team QuestTeamPolar Bear Team
What's at stake
Serghei Spivac is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Jared Vanderaa carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+17→ 1602
If they lose-7→ 1578
If they win+10→ 1733
If they lose-22→ 1701
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1596 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1724 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Jared VanderaaSerghei Spivac
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Serghei Spivac84%
Jared Vanderaa 16%Elo baseline: 69%
The Combat Edge model makes Serghei Spivac a 84% favorite over Jared Vanderaa in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (69%).
Serghei Spivac holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1723 to 1585, a 138-point edge.
Jared Vanderaa enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Jared Vanderaa finishes 82% of wins inside the distance, Serghei Spivac 83%.
Jared Vanderaa and Serghei Spivac share 2 common opponents: Waldo Cortes-Acosta and Aleksei Oleinik.
Jared Vanderaa carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.