Combat Edge Intelligence

Jared Vanderaa vs Yorgan De Castro

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

17-11-0Record12-7-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'4"Height6'1"
80"Reach74"
259 lbsWeight265 lbs
Team QuestTeamRegiment Training Center

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Jared VanderaaNow 1585
If they win+12→ 1597
If they lose-12→ 1573
Yorgan De CastroNow 1582
If they win+16→ 1598
If they lose-16→ 1566

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1596 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1544 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.96
Sig. strikes / min
2.46
45%
Strike accuracy
44%
5.67
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.85
45%
Strike defense
54%
0.18
Takedown avg.
0
50%
Takedown accuracy
0%
20%
Takedown defense
78%
0
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Jared VanderaaYorgan De Castro
155016002022202320242025

Win method breakdown

8 (47%)
KO/TKO
9 (75%)
6 (35%)
Submission
1 (8%)
3 (18%)
Decision
2 (17%)

Combat Edge model read

Jared Vanderaa63%
Yorgan De Castro 37%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Jared Vanderaa a 63% favorite over Yorgan De Castro in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1585 vs 1582), separated by just 3 points.

Jared Vanderaa enters on a 4-fight win streak.

Jared Vanderaa finishes 82% of wins inside the distance, Yorgan De Castro 83%.

Jared Vanderaa carries a 6-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.