Combat Edge Intelligence

Jarno Errens vs Steven Nguyen

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

15-6-1Record10-2-0
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'11"Height5'11"
73"Reach73"
145 lbsWeight145 lbs
Team ThrivingTeamFortis MMA

What's at stake

Steven Nguyen is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +13 while a loss costs more — Jarno Errens carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Jarno ErrensNow 1596
If they win+19→ 1615
If they lose-13→ 1583
Steven NguyenNow 1670
If they win+13→ 1683
If they lose-19→ 1651

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1557 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1550 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.29
Sig. strikes / min
7.15
44%
Strike accuracy
40%
3.29
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
7.36
62%
Strike defense
61%
0
Takedown avg.
0.28
0%
Takedown accuracy
100%
33%
Takedown defense
85%
0.31
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Jarno ErrensSteven Nguyen
16001650202320242025

Win method breakdown

3 (20%)
KO/TKO
5 (50%)
5 (33%)
Submission
3 (30%)
7 (47%)
Decision
2 (20%)

Combat Edge model read

Steven Nguyen66%
Jarno Errens 34%Elo baseline: 60%

The Combat Edge model makes Steven Nguyen a 66% favorite over Jarno Errens in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (60%).

Steven Nguyen holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1670 to 1596, a 74-point edge.

Jarno Errens finishes 53% of wins inside the distance, Steven Nguyen 80%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.