Jason Black vs Matt Grice
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
23-4-1Record15-5-0
WelterweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'10"Height5'8"
TBDReachTBD
169 lbsWeight145 lbs
Miletich Martial ArtsTeamR-1 MMA
What's at stake
Jason Black is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Matt Grice carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+11→ 1728
If they lose-13→ 1704
If they win+18→ 1693
If they lose-14→ 1661
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1567 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1573 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Jason BlackMatt Grice
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
The Combat Edge model rates this a near coin-flip, splitting Jason Black and Matt Grice within a point of even.
Jason Black holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1717 to 1675, a 42-point edge.
Jason Black finishes 79% of wins inside the distance, Matt Grice 67%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.