Jason Black vs Mochamed Machaev
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
23-4-1Record17-2-0
WelterweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height5'7"
TBDReach-
169 lbsWeight148 lbs
Miletich Martial ArtsTeamGym 23· 1615 avg Elo · 5 rated
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1729
If they lose-12→ 1705
If they win+16→ 1732
If they lose-16→ 1700
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1567 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1563 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Jason BlackMochamed Machaev
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Mochamed Machaev56%
Jason Black 44%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Mochamed Machaev a 56% favorite over Jason Black in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Jason Black's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1717 vs 1716), separated by just 1 points.
Mochamed Machaev enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Jason Black finishes 79% of wins inside the distance, Mochamed Machaev 67%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.