Jason Black vs Thiago Tavares
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
23-4-1Record24-11-1
WelterweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'10"Height5'7"
TBDReach68,0"
169 lbsWeight145 lbs
Miletich Martial ArtsTeamTeam Tavares
What's at stake
Jason Black is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Thiago Tavares carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+10→ 1727
If they lose-14→ 1703
If they win+14→ 1660
If they lose-10→ 1636
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1567 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1586 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Jason BlackThiago Tavares
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Thiago Tavares52%
Jason Black 48%Elo baseline: 40%
The Combat Edge model makes Thiago Tavares a 52% favorite over Jason Black in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Jason Black's way (40%).
Jason Black holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1717 to 1646, a 71-point edge.
Jason Black finishes 79% of wins inside the distance, Thiago Tavares 79%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.