Jason Brilz vs Tim Boetsch
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
23-6-1Record21-13-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionMiddleweight
5'11"Height6'0"
TBDReach74,0"
205 lbsWeight185 lbs
Elite PerformanceTeamTeam Irish
What's at stake
Jason Brilz is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Tim Boetsch carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+9→ 1723
If they lose-15→ 1699
If they win+15→ 1646
If they lose-9→ 1622
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1600 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1692 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Jason BrilzTim Boetsch
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Jason Brilz69%
Tim Boetsch 31%Elo baseline: 62%
The Combat Edge model makes Jason Brilz a 69% favorite over Tim Boetsch in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (62%).
Jason Brilz holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1714 to 1631, a 83-point edge.
Tim Boetsch enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Jason Brilz finishes 70% of wins inside the distance, Tim Boetsch 76%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.