Jason Day vs Theoren Thorn
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
19-12-0Record5-2-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'0"HeightTBD
TBDReach-
185 lbsWeight175 lbs
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1584
If they lose-12→ 1560
If they win+24→ 1599
If they lose-24→ 1551
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1566 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1529 · 7 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Jason DayTheoren Thorn
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Theoren Thorn70%
Jason Day 30%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Theoren Thorn a 70% favorite over Jason Day in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1572 vs 1575), separated by just 3 points.
Jason Day enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Jason Day finishes 89% of wins inside the distance, Theoren Thorn 80%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.