Jason Gonzalez vs Johnny Case
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
11-5-0Record30-10-1
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
6'2"Height5'10"
74,0"Reach72,5"
155 lbsWeight159 lbs
Millennia MMATeamMMA Lab
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1655
If they lose-16→ 1623
If they win+12→ 1652
If they lose-12→ 1628
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1566 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1617 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Jason GonzalezJohnny Case
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Johnny Case59%
Jason Gonzalez 41%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Johnny Case a 59% favorite over Jason Gonzalez in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1639 vs 1640), separated by just 1 points.
Jason Gonzalez enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Jason Gonzalez finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Johnny Case 86%.
Jason Gonzalez carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.