Jason Gonzalez vs Lucas Brennan
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
11-5-0Record11-3-0
LightweightDivisionFeatherweight
6'2"Height5'11"
74,0"Reach71"
155 lbsWeight146 lbs
Millennia MMATeamNext Generation MMA Frisco
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1655
If they lose-16→ 1623
If they win+16→ 1655
If they lose-16→ 1623
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1566 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1512 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Jason GonzalezLucas Brennan
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Lucas Brennan70%
Jason Gonzalez 30%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Lucas Brennan a 70% favorite over Jason Gonzalez in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Jason Gonzalez's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1639 vs 1639), separated by just 0 points.
Jason Gonzalez enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Jason Gonzalez finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Lucas Brennan 91%.
Jason Gonzalez carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.