Jason Lambert vs Renato Sobral
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
26-13-0Record37-12-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
5'10"Height6'0"
TBDReachTBD
205 lbsWeight205 lbs
Alliance MMATeamBabalu's Iron Gym
What's at stake
Renato Sobral is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Jason Lambert carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+14→ 1650
If they lose-10→ 1626
If they win+10→ 1697
If they lose-14→ 1673
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1576 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1642 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Jason LambertRenato Sobral
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Renato Sobral58%
Jason Lambert 42%Elo baseline: 57%
The Combat Edge model makes Renato Sobral a 58% favorite over Jason Lambert in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (57%).
Renato Sobral holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1687 to 1636, a 51-point edge.
Renato Sobral enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Jason Lambert finishes 85% of wins inside the distance, Renato Sobral 65%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.