Jason Lambert vs Rob MacDonald
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
26-13-0Record5-4-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
5'10"Height6'3"
TBDReachTBD
205 lbsWeight230 lbs
Alliance MMATeamFranco Behring
What's at stake
Jason Lambert is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Rob MacDonald carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+9→ 1645
If they lose-15→ 1621
If they win+30→ 1572
If they lose-18→ 1524
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1576 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1582 · 7 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Jason LambertRob MacDonald
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Jason Lambert56%
Rob MacDonald 44%Elo baseline: 63%
The Combat Edge model makes Jason Lambert a 56% favorite over Rob MacDonald in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (63%).
Jason Lambert holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1636 to 1542, a 94-point edge.
Rob MacDonald enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Jason Lambert finishes 85% of wins inside the distance, Rob MacDonald 100%.
Jason Lambert and Rob MacDonald share 1 common opponent: Hector Ramirez.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.