Jason Lambert vs Wilson Gouveia
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
26-13-0Record14-8-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
5'10"Height6'2"
TBDReachTBD
205 lbsWeight219 lbs
Alliance MMA· 1651 avg Elo · 5 ratedTeamAmerican Top Team
What's at stake
Jason Lambert is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Wilson Gouveia carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+10→ 1646
If they lose-14→ 1622
If they win+18→ 1604
If they lose-14→ 1572
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1576 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1598 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Jason LambertWilson Gouveia
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Jason Lambert57%
Wilson Gouveia 43%Elo baseline: 57%
The Combat Edge model makes Jason Lambert a 57% favorite over Wilson Gouveia in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (57%).
Jason Lambert holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1636 to 1586, a 50-point edge.
Wilson Gouveia enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Jason Lambert finishes 85% of wins inside the distance, Wilson Gouveia 93%.
Jason Lambert and Wilson Gouveia share 1 common opponent: Jason MacDonald.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.