Combat Edge Intelligence

Jason MacDonald vs John Salter

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

25-16-0Record19-6-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'2"Height6'1"
TBDReachTBD
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
Pure FitnessTeamGym-O

What's at stake

John Salter is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +7 while a loss costs more — Jason MacDonald carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Jason MacDonaldNow 1587
If they win+17→ 1604
If they lose-7→ 1580
John SalterNow 1725
If they win+7→ 1732
If they lose-17→ 1708

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1600 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1643 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.55
Sig. strikes / min
1.35
53%
Strike accuracy
24%
2.70
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.31
47%
Strike defense
69%
1.43
Takedown avg.
2.61
16%
Takedown accuracy
40%
35%
Takedown defense
67%
1.97
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Jason MacDonaldJohn Salter
160016501700175020102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023

Win method breakdown

3 (12%)
KO/TKO
7 (37%)
19 (76%)
Submission
10 (53%)
3 (12%)
Decision
2 (11%)

Combat Edge model read

John Salter83%
Jason MacDonald 17%Elo baseline: 69%

The Combat Edge model makes John Salter a 83% favorite over Jason MacDonald in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (69%).

John Salter holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1725 to 1587, a 138-point edge.

Jason MacDonald enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Jason MacDonald finishes 88% of wins inside the distance, John Salter 89%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.