Combat Edge Intelligence

Jason MacDonald vs Nate Quarry

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

25-16-0Record12-4-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'2"Height6'0"
TBDReachTBD
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
Pure FitnessTeamTeam Quest

What's at stake

Jason MacDonald is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Nate Quarry carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Jason MacDonaldNow 1587
If they win+11→ 1598
If they lose-13→ 1574
Nate QuarryNow 1566
If they win+17→ 1583
If they lose-15→ 1551

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1600 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1601 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.55
Sig. strikes / min
4.96
53%
Strike accuracy
45%
2.70
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.80
47%
Strike defense
66%
1.43
Takedown avg.
0.25
16%
Takedown accuracy
33%
35%
Takedown defense
60%
1.97
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Jason MacDonaldNate Quarry
1550160020082009201020112012

Win method breakdown

3 (12%)
KO/TKO
7 (58%)
19 (76%)
Submission
2 (17%)
3 (12%)
Decision
3 (25%)

Combat Edge model read

Jason MacDonald53%
Nate Quarry 47%Elo baseline: 53%

The Combat Edge model makes Jason MacDonald a 53% favorite over Nate Quarry in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (53%).

Jason MacDonald holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1587 to 1566, a 21-point edge.

Jason MacDonald enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Jason MacDonald finishes 88% of wins inside the distance, Nate Quarry 75%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.