Combat Edge Intelligence

Jason MacDonald vs Rich Franklin

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

25-16-0Record29-7-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'2"Height6'1"
TBDReachTBD
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
Pure FitnessTeamTeam Extreme

What's at stake

Rich Franklin is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +8 while a loss costs more — Jason MacDonald carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Jason MacDonaldNow 1587
If they win+16→ 1603
If they lose-8→ 1579
Rich FranklinNow 1710
If they win+8→ 1718
If they lose-16→ 1694

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1600 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1689 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.55
Sig. strikes / min
4.10
53%
Strike accuracy
44%
2.70
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.07
47%
Strike defense
63%
1.43
Takedown avg.
1.31
16%
Takedown accuracy
67%
35%
Takedown defense
63%
1.97
Submission avg.
0.66

Trajectory

Jason MacDonaldRich Franklin
160016501700201020112012

Win method breakdown

3 (12%)
KO/TKO
20 (69%)
19 (76%)
Submission
5 (17%)
3 (12%)
Decision
4 (14%)

Combat Edge model read

Rich Franklin75%
Jason MacDonald 25%Elo baseline: 67%

The Combat Edge model makes Rich Franklin a 75% favorite over Jason MacDonald in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (67%).

Rich Franklin holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1710 to 1587, a 123-point edge.

Jason MacDonald enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Jason MacDonald finishes 88% of wins inside the distance, Rich Franklin 86%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.