Jason MacDonald vs Ryan Jensen
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
25-16-0Record21-8-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'2"Height5'10"
TBDReachTBD
185 lbsWeight175 lbs
Pure FitnessTeamJackson-Wink MMA
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1599
If they lose-12→ 1575
If they win+16→ 1602
If they lose-16→ 1570
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1600 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1583 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Jason MacDonaldRyan Jensen
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Ryan Jensen56%
Jason MacDonald 44%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Ryan Jensen a 56% favorite over Jason MacDonald in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Jason MacDonald's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1587 vs 1586), separated by just 1 points.
Jason MacDonald enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Jason MacDonald finishes 88% of wins inside the distance, Ryan Jensen 100%.
Jason MacDonald and Ryan Jensen share 1 common opponent: Wilson Gouveia.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.