Jason MacDonald vs Tom Lawlor
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
25-16-0Record11-8-0
MiddleweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'2"Height6'0"
TBDReach74,0"
185 lbsWeight205 lbs
Pure FitnessTeamThe Jungle MMA
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1599
If they lose-12→ 1575
If they win+16→ 1599
If they lose-16→ 1567
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1600 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1637 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Jason MacDonaldTom Lawlor
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Tom Lawlor64%
Jason MacDonald 36%Elo baseline: 49%
The Combat Edge model makes Tom Lawlor a 64% favorite over Jason MacDonald in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Jason MacDonald's way (49%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1587 vs 1583), separated by just 4 points.
Jason MacDonald enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Jason MacDonald finishes 88% of wins inside the distance, Tom Lawlor 73%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.