Jason Novelli vs Marco Polo Reyes
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
12-3-1Record16-9-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
6'0"Height5'10"
75,0"ReachTBD
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Team QuestTeamEntram Gym· 1678 avg Elo · 12 rated
What's at stake
Jason Novelli is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +13 while a loss costs more — Marco Polo Reyes carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+13→ 1651
If they lose-19→ 1619
If they win+19→ 1595
If they lose-13→ 1563
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1549 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1613 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Jason NovelliMarco Polo Reyes
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Marco Polo Reyes60%
Jason Novelli 40%Elo baseline: 41%
The Combat Edge model makes Marco Polo Reyes a 60% favorite over Jason Novelli in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Jason Novelli's way (41%).
Jason Novelli holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1638 to 1576, a 62-point edge.
Marco Polo Reyes enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Jason Novelli finishes 75% of wins inside the distance, Marco Polo Reyes 88%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.