Combat Edge Intelligence

Jason Novelli vs Marco Polo Reyes

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

12-3-1Record16-9-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
6'0"Height5'10"
75,0"ReachTBD
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Team QuestTeamEntram Gym

What's at stake

Jason Novelli is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +13 while a loss costs more — Marco Polo Reyes carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Jason NovelliNow 1637
If they win+13→ 1650
If they lose-19→ 1618
Marco Polo ReyesNow 1567
If they win+19→ 1586
If they lose-13→ 1554

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1548 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1596 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.73
Sig. strikes / min
6
24%
Strike accuracy
37%
3.55
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
5.52
67%
Strike defense
60%
0.70
Takedown avg.
0
33%
Takedown accuracy
0%
100%
Takedown defense
47%
0
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Jason NovelliMarco Polo Reyes
15501600165020162017201820192020202120222023

Win method breakdown

3 (25%)
KO/TKO
12 (75%)
6 (50%)
Submission
2 (13%)
3 (25%)
Decision
2 (13%)

Combat Edge model read

Jason Novelli58%
Marco Polo Reyes 42%Elo baseline: 60%

The Combat Edge model makes Jason Novelli a 58% favorite over Marco Polo Reyes in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (60%).

Jason Novelli holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1637 to 1567, a 70-point edge.

Marco Polo Reyes enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Jason Novelli finishes 75% of wins inside the distance, Marco Polo Reyes 88%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.