Jason Novelli vs Matt Frevola
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
12-3-1Record11-6-1
LightweightDivisionLightweight
6'0"Height5'9"
75,0"Reach71"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Team QuestTeamGracie Tampa South
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1653
If they lose-16→ 1621
If they win+16→ 1653
If they lose-16→ 1621
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1548 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1680 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Jason NovelliMatt Frevola
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Matt Frevola53%
Jason Novelli 47%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Matt Frevola a 53% favorite over Jason Novelli in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Jason Novelli's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1637 vs 1637), separated by just 0 points.
Matt Frevola enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Jason Novelli finishes 75% of wins inside the distance, Matt Frevola 64%.
Jason Novelli carries a 4-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.