Jason Novelli vs Ray Hayes
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
12-3-1Record9-2-0
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
6'0"Height6'0"
75,0"Reach-
155 lbsWeight170 lbs
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1654
If they lose-16→ 1622
If they win+16→ 1654
If they lose-16→ 1622
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1549 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1505 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Jason NovelliRay Hayes
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Ray Hayes54%
Jason Novelli 46%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Ray Hayes a 54% favorite over Jason Novelli in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Jason Novelli's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1638 vs 1638), separated by just 0 points.
Ray Hayes enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Jason Novelli finishes 75% of wins inside the distance, Ray Hayes 100%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.