Jason Riley vs Raphael Pessoa
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
10-8-0Record10-5-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'6"Height6'4"
TBDReach78″
245 lbsWeight247 lbs
Buckeye MMATeamTop Brother MMA
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1576
If they lose-16→ 1544
If they win+16→ 1582
If they lose-16→ 1550
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1504 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1577 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Jason RileyRaphael Pessoa
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Raphael Pessoa52%
Jason Riley 48%Elo baseline: 51%
The Combat Edge model makes Raphael Pessoa a 52% favorite over Jason Riley in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1560 vs 1566), separated by just 6 points.
Jason Riley enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Raphael Pessoa enters on a 5-fight loss streak.
Jason Riley finishes 90% of wins inside the distance, Raphael Pessoa 70%.
Jason Riley and Raphael Pessoa share 1 common opponent: Jeff Hughes.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.