Combat Edge Intelligence

Jason Saggo vs Josh Shockley

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

13-4-0Record11-4-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'11"Height6'1"
71,0"ReachTBD
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Wulfrun MMATeamDuneland Vale Tudo

What's at stake

Jason Saggo is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +13 while a loss costs more — Josh Shockley carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Jason SaggoNow 1676
If they win+13→ 1689
If they lose-19→ 1657
Josh ShockleyNow 1611
If they win+19→ 1630
If they lose-13→ 1598

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1595 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1548 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.50
Sig. strikes / min
1.40
40%
Strike accuracy
33%
2.94
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
1.75
52%
Strike defense
60%
2.33
Takedown avg.
0
40%
Takedown accuracy
0%
23%
Takedown defense
62%
0
Submission avg.
0.75

Trajectory

Jason SaggoJosh Shockley
160016501700201320142015201620172018

Win method breakdown

3 (23%)
KO/TKO
3 (27%)
9 (69%)
Submission
5 (45%)
1 (8%)
Decision
3 (27%)

Combat Edge model read

Jason Saggo58%
Josh Shockley 42%Elo baseline: 59%

The Combat Edge model makes Jason Saggo a 58% favorite over Josh Shockley in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (59%).

Jason Saggo holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1676 to 1611, a 65-point edge.

Josh Shockley enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Jason Saggo finishes 92% of wins inside the distance, Josh Shockley 73%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.