Jason Saggo vs Paul Felder
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
13-4-0Record17-6-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'11"Height5'10"
71,0"Reach70,5"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Wulfrun MMATeamRoufusport· 1700 avg Elo · 7 rated
What's at stake
Paul Felder is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Jason Saggo carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+19→ 1695
If they lose-13→ 1663
If they win+10→ 1744
If they lose-14→ 1720
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1595 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1667 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Jason SaggoPaul Felder
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Paul Felder61%
Jason Saggo 39%Elo baseline: 58%
The Combat Edge model makes Paul Felder a 61% favorite over Jason Saggo in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (58%).
Paul Felder holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1734 to 1676, a 58-point edge.
Paul Felder enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Jason Saggo finishes 92% of wins inside the distance, Paul Felder 65%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.