Combat Edge Intelligence

Jason Saggo vs Paul Felder

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Paul Felder
us

Paul Felder

“The Irish Dragon”

17-6-0LightweightUFC

1734Good

Tale of the tape

13-4-0Record17-6-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'11"Height5'10"
71,0"Reach70,5"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Wulfrun MMATeamRoufusport

What's at stake

Paul Felder is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Jason Saggo carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Jason SaggoNow 1675
If they win+19→ 1694
If they lose-13→ 1662
Paul FelderNow 1734
If they win+10→ 1744
If they lose-14→ 1720

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1594 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1667 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.50
Sig. strikes / min
3.70
40%
Strike accuracy
45%
2.94
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.44
52%
Strike defense
49%
2.33
Takedown avg.
0.29
40%
Takedown accuracy
29%
23%
Takedown defense
65%
0
Submission avg.
0.22

Trajectory

Jason SaggoPaul Felder
1650170017502017201820192020

Win method breakdown

3 (23%)
KO/TKO
10 (59%)
9 (69%)
Submission
1 (6%)
1 (8%)
Decision
6 (35%)

Combat Edge model read

Paul Felder63%
Jason Saggo 37%Elo baseline: 58%

The Combat Edge model makes Paul Felder a 63% favorite over Jason Saggo in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (58%).

Paul Felder holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1734 to 1675, a 59-point edge.

Paul Felder enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Jason Saggo finishes 92% of wins inside the distance, Paul Felder 65%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.