Combat Edge Intelligence

Javier Reyes vs Matt Grice

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Matt Grice
us

Matt Grice

“The Real One”

15-5-0FeatherweightUFC

1674Good

Tale of the tape

23-6-0Record15-5-0
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'10"Height5'8"
73"ReachTBD
146 lbsWeight145 lbs
Xtreme CoutureTeamR-1 MMA

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Javier ReyesNow 1675
If they win+12→ 1687
If they lose-12→ 1663
Matt GriceNow 1674
If they win+16→ 1690
If they lose-16→ 1658

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1558 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1573 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

8.91
Sig. strikes / min
4.09
56%
Strike accuracy
53%
2.53
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.69
47%
Strike defense
56%
2
Takedown avg.
2.19
50%
Takedown accuracy
38%
50%
Takedown defense
82%
0
Submission avg.
0.49

Trajectory

Javier ReyesMatt Grice
165017002011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

11 (48%)
KO/TKO
7 (47%)
8 (35%)
Submission
3 (20%)
4 (17%)
Decision
5 (33%)

Combat Edge model read

Javier Reyes72%
Matt Grice 28%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Javier Reyes a 72% favorite over Matt Grice in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1675 vs 1674), separated by just 1 points.

Javier Reyes finishes 83% of wins inside the distance, Matt Grice 67%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.