Combat Edge Intelligence

Javier Vazquez vs Joe Stevenson

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

16-5-0Record33-16-0
FeatherweightDivisionLightweight
5'7"Height5'7"
TBDReachTBD
145 lbsWeight155 lbs
Gracie Jiu-JitsuTeamJoe Stevenson's Cobra Kai

What's at stake

Joe Stevenson is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Javier Vazquez carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Javier VazquezNow 1579
If they win+26→ 1605
If they lose-22→ 1557
Joe StevensonNow 1615
If they win+11→ 1626
If they lose-13→ 1602

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1608 · 7 fightsPre-fight Elo1562 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.43
Sig. strikes / min
2.05
36%
Strike accuracy
45%
1.99
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.44
72%
Strike defense
61%
2.56
Takedown avg.
2.75
52%
Takedown accuracy
45%
57%
Takedown defense
40%
1.49
Submission avg.
2.20

Trajectory

Javier VazquezJoe Stevenson
1500155016002010201120122013201420152016

Win method breakdown

1 (6%)
KO/TKO
9 (27%)
10 (63%)
Submission
13 (39%)
5 (31%)
Decision
11 (33%)

Combat Edge model read

Joe Stevenson53%
Javier Vazquez 47%Elo baseline: 55%

The Combat Edge model makes Joe Stevenson a 53% favorite over Javier Vazquez in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (55%).

Joe Stevenson holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1615 to 1579, a 36-point edge.

Joe Stevenson enters on a 2-fight win streak.

Javier Vazquez finishes 69% of wins inside the distance, Joe Stevenson 67%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.