Jay Hieron vs Jonathan Goulet
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
23-7-0Record23-12-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'11"Height6'0"
TBDReachTBD
170 lbsWeight169 lbs
Xtreme CoutureTeamTeam Legion
What's at stake
Jay Hieron is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +7 while a loss costs more — Jonathan Goulet carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+7→ 1727
If they lose-17→ 1703
If they win+17→ 1570
If they lose-7→ 1546
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1644 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1574 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Jay HieronJonathan Goulet
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Jay Hieron78%
Jonathan Goulet 22%Elo baseline: 72%
The Combat Edge model makes Jay Hieron a 78% favorite over Jonathan Goulet in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (72%).
Jay Hieron holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1720 to 1553, a 167-point edge.
Jay Hieron enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Jay Hieron finishes 57% of wins inside the distance, Jonathan Goulet 87%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.